Today I want to discuss the role of the Supreme Court nomination in the competitive Senate races I am following.
I’m especially interested in how the Democratic incumbent senators in states Trump won will vote. Ultimately, I think Kavanaugh will get confirmed before the election so his confirmation may no longer be a direct issue in November. However, how the senators voted could definitely still be on voters minds. It’s probably a lose-lose situation Vote no and you may have just created a new attack ad and alienated Trump supporters and conservative, but vote yes and alienate independents and your parties leadership. I wouldn’t be surprised if some of these candidates will be considering the effects this vote could have on their reelection. I’m am particularly interested in Heitkamp from North Dakota and Tester from Montana since both of them are in tight races in places where a conservative Supreme Court justice might be popular.
I am going to remove a few states I previous named as competitive, because the polling data doesn’t support a close race. I am no longer considering the Texas race competitive after a 5th poll shows Cruz with a study lead. O’Rouke may do very well for a Democrat in Texas, but I just don’t think the polls support a competitive race. Pennslyvania and Ohio are now considered safe for the Democratic candidate, and Wisconsin and Michigan will be considered safe for the Democratic candidate after there primary unless the Republican nominee has a poll with the Republican Candidate winning outside of the margin of error. On August 1, races will be recategorized depending on whether or not they have at least 1 post-primary poll showing a within margin error lead.
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