I wanted my one of my first posts about the election to be about the Texas Senate Race.
A few weeks ago, I listened to the FiveThirtyEight podcast on the Texas Senate Race which discussed the Quinnipiac poll (from April 18th) that showed a statistical tie (Cruz’s lead was less than the margin of error) between Cruz and O’Rouke. I have thought about the race a lot because it has the potential to be unusually close.
The question of the race is this: Can a Democratic candidate beat an incumbent Republican in a Red state that Trump won by 9 points? The poll data is pretty weak right now, with Real Clear Politics just showing the Quinnipiac poll and one from JMC Analytics (an agency I have never heard of). But this is something worth watching, and looks like it will be a close race.
O’Rouke has a chance, but he will have to work on turnout and flipping Republican and Republican-leaning voters like myself, who are moderate, dislike Cruz and the direction of the GOP.
My planned vote is for Ted Cruz, not because I approve of him nor because I agree with most of his politics, but because Cruz better represents my politics and I think O’Rouke would vote the party line if elected. The Republican Senate majority is vulnerable, which is also influencing my decision. Only time will tell who the other moderate Republicans will vote for, but Texas will be a race to watch on election night.
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