I was rechecking my error calculations after I received a comment about the error calculations from a reviewer of my paper. An example calculation was incorrect. This was a minor error, but a further examination led to the discovery of a error in the 2-Party error of my model in 2012. The error was approximately half of what it was supposed to be. This mistake made my model falsely appear more accurate than the Five Thirty Model do to this underestimation. All of the error calculations are currently being reexamined for possible errors. I have already recalculated all the errors but I want to check them a couple of more times to be safe. A corrected table will be posted once it is checked again.
Update: 12/5
No other major errors were found in the re-checking process. All calculations have been checked three times post the discovery of the error of the 2012 2-Party error for my model.
Update: 1/20 fixed typo in tested model 2008 for both all candidates and 2-party and adjusted average
Below is the updated table to replace the former tables used in both the ESR Virtual Poster and the USPROC Paper:
| Tested Model RMSE | Tested Model RMSE Swing States | RCP RMSE Swing State | 538 RMSE | 538 RMSE Swing State | |
| 2008 All Candidates | 3.5474 | 3.14788 | 4.23389 | 3.19332 | 1.66958 |
| 2008 -2 Party | 2.89669 | 2.57051 | 3.63513 | 3.0305 | 1.47846 |
| 2012 All Candidates | 3.25139 | 1.94492 | 2.33511 | 2.38019 | 1.2979 |
| 2012 2-Party | 2.37053 | 1.17163 | 1.61076 | 1.98642 | 0.9342 |
| 2016 All Candidates | 6.82013 | 3.95985 | 3.32952 | 5.37952 | 3.56511 |
| 2016 2-Party | 3.95985 | 3.14325 | 2.04295 | 3.81296 | 2.31948 |
| All Candidate Average | 4.53964 | 3.01755 | 3.299507 | 3.65101 | 2.17753 |
| 2-Party Average | 3.07569 | 2.29513 | 2.42961 | 2.94329 | 1.57738 |
| 2-Party Average Compared to 538 | 0.95695 | 0.68727 | 0.64923 | ||
| 2-Party Compared to RCP | 1.05859 |
| Column1 | Tested Model RMSE | Tested Model RMSE SS | RCP RMSE SS | FiveThirtyEight Polls PlusRMSE | 538 RMSE SS |
| 2008 | 3.5474 | 3.14788 | 4.23389 | 3.19332 | 1.66958 |
| 2008 -2 Party | 2.89669 | 2.57051 | 3.63513 | 3.0305 | 1.47846 |
| 2012 | 3.25139 | 1.94492 | 2.33511 | 2.38019 | 1.2979 |
| 2012 2-Party | 2.37053 | 1.17163 | 1.61076 | 1.98642 | 0.9342 |
| 2016 | 6.82013 | 6.42335 | 8.23311 | 5.37952 | 4.14228 |
| 2016 2-Party | 3.95985 | 3.03986 | 1.89412 | 3.81296 | 2.41263 |
| 2016 SS without UT and AZ | 3.99534 | 3.32952 | 3.56511 | ||
| 2016 SS without UT and AZ 2-Party | 3.14325 | 2.04295 | 2.31948 | ||
| Overall Average | 4.53964 | 3.83872 | 4.93404 | 3.65101 | 2.36992 |
| 2-Party Average | 3.07569 | 2.26067 | 2.38 | 2.94329 | 1.60843 |
| 2 – Party Average Compared to 538 | 0.95695 | 0.71148 | 0.67581 | ||
| 2- Party Compared to RCP | 1.05279 |
This work by BrittanyAlexander is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International