Election Modelling isn’t Inherently Political

One of the sad trends I have noticed is the desire to attack politics journalists or pollsters or elections modelers and dismiss their work because it fits there political views.  An example of this is someone saying Nate Silver is only predicting the Democrats would flip the house because he is a Democrat, and not because there was actual evidence of this (and as you know this actually happened).  There might be journalists/pollsters/modelers who can not separate their politics and their work.  But, I assume most of them like me try put their politics aside and follow the facts.   I think it’s important for me to draw attention to this issue, and also share that as a conservative-leaning independent,  I do trust that people on the other side of the spectrum to do a good job.

It has surprised me as a newcomer to polling analysis is that how some people view the polls and models as something used to promote an agenda or attack the president. I’ve struggled with convincing some of my own friends and family that the polls could be trusted even though they didn’t predict that Trump would win the Presidential election. In some people’s minds polls aren’t worth dealing with, so you should just let the phone ring when “Survey” comes on the caller ID. 

 We should try to improve public support of the polls and models. Because if public trust is low the response rates may go down and with them, the errors may go up resulting in a never-ending self-fulfilling prophecy. 
  In particular, I think that the polling community does need to reach out to conservatives to attempt to try to gain a level of trust.  If there is a polling trust gap between conservatives and liberals it could affect how the polls perform.

But I trust the polls and the models. I know they have flaws, but I also know that it is the nature of all statistical modeling. But the power of political polling is more than election prediction and helps us understand how the electorate feels about politicians and policies. The challenging nature of this field and its potential for statistical education of the public is why I do what I do. 

For me, this has never been about my politics, and I trust the models of those whose political opinions and demographics are different than mine.  In this era of tribalism and polarization, we need to acknowledge that the field of political polling analysis isn’t inherently political.

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