This is my last planned post for the 2018 midterms. I would like to blog closer to the election but I am starting a Ph.D. program and may not have the time. Hopefully, I will be able to make a prediction in November. I am going to cover Florida and Missouri. I will try to profile Arizona after the primary since there is a small chance that the presumed nominee McSally will not win on 8/28.
Florida
2016 Presidential Election result: Trump: 49.02% Clinton 47.82%, Margin: Trump +2.80%
2012 Senate Election result: Nelson (D) 55.2%, Mack (R) 42.2%, margin +13 D
Democratic Candidate: Bill Nelson (incumbent)
Nelson is currently the incumbent Senator. He is moderate and was elected in 2000. He is branding himself as independent to appeal to Florida’s moderate independent voters.
Republican Candidate: Rick Scott
Scott is the current governor of Florida and was elected to that position in 2010. He has an interesting plan to improve the Governments efficiency and fairness by writing bills that would introduce term limits, require congressmen to work 40 hours a week, add a line item veto for the president, a requirement to have a super majority for a tax increase, and not paying congressman while there is no budget. Even if he does write those bills, I doubt that any of those things will actually become law.
My Thoughts on the Race: The Real Clear Politics average is currently Scott +1.2, and I think this race is very close. The latest poll showed Scott with a 3 point lead but it is from a Republican-leaning polling agency using a likely voter model that might not be accurate. The polls are disagreeing with each other but I think that is a combination of sampling error, the mix of likely voter polls and registered voter polls and variations in the agency. There are still some undecided voters and as the undecided voters decrease and we get closer to election day hopefully this will be more clear. This is definitely a race to watch on election night. And to make this race even more interesting there is currently a controversy over whether or not Russian has hacked Florida’s voter registration system. Both campaigns are blaming each other on the algae bloom crisis with attack ads. The winner of this race is probably going to be determined by turnout.
2016 Presidential Election result: Trump: 56.77% Clinton 38.14%, Margin: Trump +22.63%
2012 Senate Election result: McCaskill (D) 54.8%, Akin (R) 39.1%, Dine (Libertarian) 6.1% margin +15.7% D
Democratic Candidate: Claire McCaskill (incumbent)
McCaskill was elected in 2006. Her Trump Score is 45.3% but the predicted score is 83.2%. This difference means that there is plenty of material for attack ads on her past votes. She voted no for the Tax plan and for immigration reform the president didn’t support. She opposed the Republican budgets. While as an incumbent she has an advantage, but she might struggle to get Trump voters to vote for her.
Republican Candidate: Josh Hawley
Hawley is the current Attorney general and states on his website that he is “one of the nation’s leading constitutional lawyers”, and supports religious freedom and fighting against the opioid epidemic and human trafficking.
My Thoughts on the Race: The polling data has been pretty spread out, and the polling agencies are legitimate but not as good as the big name polling agencies. Hawley has a chance of winning, but at this time McCaskill might have a slight lead. Hopefully, more polls will be conducted so we can see a better picture.
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