I am writing this week’s update a day early.
So I’ve developed a functional second model that allows for correlation between states. I am working on testing it. Next week I might base the post on the second model if I show that the second model is more accurate than the current model.
This week’s map:
Scale: 0-.05 Safe Red (darkest) 0.05-0.15 Likely Red (second darkest) 0.15-0.25 Lean Red (light red) 0.25-0.75 Tossup 0.75-0.85 Lean Blue (lightest blue) 0.85-0.95 Likely Blue(second darkest) >.95 Safe Blue (darkest)
Biden/Trump is likely to lose about 1 in 4 of there lean states and 1 in 10 likely states. The expected number of electors is Biden 335, Trump 203. This adjusts for the uncertainty in winning a lean or likely state. Except for Texas, the likely and lean red states are labeled because of insufficient polling data. CA, WA, OR are likely blue because insufficient polling data.
Analysis:
Not much change in the model. The model is very stable. The number of polls are increasing which is nice. I think Biden remains the likely winner.
This work by BrittanyAlexander is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International