Model Update 10/9

This weeks map:

Scale: 0-.05 Safe Red (darkest) 0.05-0.15 Likely Red (second darkest) 0.15-0.25 Lean Red (light red) 0.25-0.75 Tossup 0.75-0.85 Lean Blue (lightest blue) 0.85-0.95 Likely Blue(second darkest) >.95 Safe Blue (darkest)

Biden/Trump is likely to lose about 1 in 4 of there lean states and 1 in 10 likely states. The expected number of electors is Biden 339, Trump 199. This adjusts for the uncertainty in winning a lean or likely state. Except for Texas, the likely and lean red states are labeled because of insufficient polling data.

Analysis:

Some of the change for this week is due to me fine-tuning some model parameters and adding weights. Biden continues to be ahead.

Now let’s compare Biden’s lead to how accurate this model was in the past. If Biden’s lead is greater than the historical error this indicates a high probability Biden wins that state. The direction of the error could underestimate or overestimate Biden. Historically this model is equally likely to underestimate or overestimate a candidate. It’s equally likely Biden and Trump are underestimated. This comparison uses the models fit 28 days before the election in 2008-2016. We roughly assume that if Biden’s lead is bigger than the error he wins and the other states are split among the candidates.

Some interesting comparisons in the key states of AZ, CO, GA, FL, IA, NC, NH, NV, OH, PA, VA, WI :

If the model’s performance at 2008 levels, Biden’s lead is larger than the error in: IA, PA

In this scenario, Biden is likely to win but it is close. He should still pick up about half of the other key states since the error can go both ways.

If the model’s performance is at 2012 levels, Biden’s lead is larger than the error in: AZ,CO, FL, IA, NC, NH, NV, OH, PA, VA, WI

In this scenario Biden wins every state is he classified as likely to win. This leans to a blowout of approximately 374 electoral college votes.

If the model’s performance is at 2016 levels: , Biden’s lead is larger than the error in: AZ, CO, FL, GA, NV, IA, VA

In this scenario, Biden is likely to win.

If the model’s performance at the average compared to 2008-2016:

AZ, CO, FL, GA, IA, NC, PA, VA

In this scenario, Biden is likely to win.

Basically the lead we are seeing for Biden surpasses the historical error of this model. Now it is possible for the model to perform worse this year. But this along with the uncertainty estimates from within the model paints a picture that Biden is the likely winner. Trump has a chance, but it is smaller than Biden’s.