This post was written on June 10th and may not reflect last minute changes.
2016 Presidential Election result: Trump: 51.69%, Clinton 43.56%, Margin: Trump +8.13%
2012 Senate Election result: Brown (D) 50.7%, Mandel (R) 44.7%
Democratic Candidate: Sherrod Brown
Brown is the incumbent. He was first elected to the Senate in 2006, and before that he was a U.S. representative and had various state level positions. He has been highly productive in producing new bills, including bipartisan ones. My impression of Brown is that he is a moderate Democrat. His opinion on social issues like abortion and LGBT+ rights may be too liberal for some voters in Ohio.
Republican Candidate: Jim Renacci
Renacci is currently a member of the US House of Representatives, but it wasn’t in his biography which I thought was odd. Before he was a politician he was a businessman, which seems to be a pattern among Republican candidates in the Trump era. His views appear to be reminiscent of the 2016 Republican platform.
My Thoughts on the Race:
Brown is the incumbent and the one poll we have had Brown winning by 14 points. This is one of the races I am watching, but I don’t think it will flip. Trump didn’t win by that much in Ohio. I would consider Ohio a purple state. Brown has done well in his past elections. I don’t think a candidate that is similar to Trump is enough to beat an incumbent when Trump isn’t that popular.
I think it is important to watch all the states where there is a mismatch in the Senator’s party and the 2016 Presidential Election result. I don’t know how much movement there will be. This new project has been a big learning experience for me. Control of the Senate is decided by so many unique races. It’s interesting to learn about the current and future Senators and get a look at a different side of voting behavior. I have enjoyed watching primary night coverage and learning more about American political geography.
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