In today’s blog post I will discuss two of the competitive races. In West Virginia and Indiana, we have two incumbent Democrats from red states. In these profiles, I want to examine the candidates and the race, much like a voter would. I want to look at past elections, the experience of the candidates, and the stance of the candidates on the issues (as judged by their campaign websites).
Disclaimer: I am a moderate Republican, and while I try to remain as objective as possible I acknowledge that my unintentional bias might affect my view of the races.
West Virginia:
2016 Presidential Election result: Trump: 68.6%, Clinton 26.5%, Margin: Trump +42.1%
2012 Senate Election result: Manchin (D) 60.6%, Raese (R) 36.5%
Democratic Candidate: Joe Manchin
Manchin was governor of West Virginia before he was elected in 2010 during a special election. He seems to be a more moderate Democrat than most. What I think makes him appealing is his focus on improving the quality of life of West Virginias through tax, education, and healthcare reform.
Republican Candidate: Patrick Morrisey
Morrisey has served as the Attorney General of West Virginia since 2012. He seems to be pretty conservative and has is presenting himself with views that appear similar to Trump (without invoking his name) which is his main advantage.
My Thoughts on the Race: The polling is limited right now. I am inclined to believe the Gravis poll which shows Manchin with a 13 point lead, over the WPAi poll which shows Morrisey with a 2 point lead (inside the margin of error). I know that the incumbency advantage is strong and that Manchin has done well in his past two elections. But given the polarized environment, I think Morrisey has a chance. Hopefully, more polls will tell a better picture.
Indiana:
2016 Presidential Election result: Trump: 56.9%, Clinton 37.8%, Margin: Trump +19.1
2012 Senate Election result: Donnelly (D) 50%, Mourdock (R) 44.3%
Democratic Candidate: Joe Donnelly
Donnelly has a US representative before he was elected to the senate in 2012. Donnelly seems moderate. His website focuses multiple times on the importance of looking at the best policy and not the one associated with a party.
Republican Candidate: Mike Braun
His website is reminscent of the Trump campaign with “Drain the Swamp” on the front page at the time of this posting. He is very conservative and similar to Trump (in my opinion). He could turn off centrists, (I am a moderate republican and I don’t know if I would vote for him).
My Thoughts on the Race: If I had to pick which race between Indiana and West Virginia was more likely to flip I would choose Indiana. There is only one poll right now. I don’t consider Braun’s 1 point lead to be that meaningful but it shows that the race is very close. It’s an early poll of 400 voters with 7% undecided, which limits its predictability of the election result. Indiana is definitely worth watching.
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