For today’s regular post I want to lay out what my initial subgroups to use in the analysis.
Click the map to create your own at Safe Republican Seats – Mississippi (Both seats), Nebraska, Utah, Wyoming
These are deep red states, and unlike Texas and Tennessee, they currently lack a strong democratic contender.
Republican Seats to Watch – Arizona, Nevada, Tennessee, Texas
Arizona and Nevada are vulnerable because the incumbent is retiring, and both states were relatively close in the 2016 election. Tennessee has a retiring incumbent and a former Democratic governor who is doing good in the polls. In Texas, O’Rouke is looking like he may have a chance.
Democratic Seats to Watch (States that Trump Won)- Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, West Virginia, Wisconsin
This category is of the states that Trump won, and I want to watch these states to see if they have the potential of flipping.
Safe Blue States – California, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota (both seats), New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Rhode Island, Virginia, Washington
Safe Incumbent Independent Senators – Maine, Vermont
I don’t see Sanders or King having any problem being reelected.
I want to profile all the states I have categorized as close. I am going to go 1-2 a week, and I will wait until after the primary so I can discuss both candidates. Right now, I think that the Republicans will remain in control of the Senate, with at least 50 seats (the VP can break ties). There are vulnerable Republican seats, but there are also vulnerable Democratic seats. I do expect individual seats to flip, but the final result should be about the 51-49 split it is right now.
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